Prediction: The Obamater Urge


America has a corrupt president, and reacts by choosing a person of apparent character.  In place of an ugly, hardball Republican administration, we elect a decent, sweet-sounding Democrat outsider.  The new president proceeds to treat politics as though it were a matter of what makes sense.  He won’t or can’t muscle his way out of sticky situations in Central Asia, and instead becomes a hostage to them.  And if 2012 were 1980, we would once again be on our way to electing a Great Manipulator, who would wrap him/herself in the colors of the flag while leading us into a generation of presidential stupidity.

There are some differences.  Gen X was sure; Gen Y is not so sure.  Reagan could still tug on the heartstrings of World War II-era voters.  They’re mostly gone now.  Some adaptation has occurred:  arrogance is less fashionable.

My early predictions:  Obama will win re-election in 2012, probably not by a wide margin; and after he does, he will belatedly discover the confidence and urgency of practicing international politics, as distinct from political analysis.  Palin won’t be the Republican nominee in the general election, though she will certainly be a candidate in the primary.  Obama will never really rise above himself, and will therefore stoke a desire for the more muscular kind of president whom we will elect in 2016.


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